A d5100 will be a huge improvement and upgrade over the d40. I was in a similar situation a few years back, but I had the d60. I opted for the d90 and still use it today as a back up to my d300.
The d90 is still a very capable camera, I still use mine a lot as its lighter and smaller than the heavy d300. Plus the sensors are the same and handle high iso noise in similar ways.
If I was in your position I'd go for the d7000 over the d5100, they have the same sensor but the d7000 has much more going for it with weather sealing and an auto focus motor in the body. This opens up a lot more options as far as lenses are concerned. If you went that way lenses like the stunning Nikon 80-200 2.8 would be an option.
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